NGX Daily Market Summary – Tuesday, November 4, 2025

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) All Share Index (ASI) slid by -0.72% to close at 153,739.11, retreating from the previous close as market breadth remained noticeably weak. Turnover also fell sharply with a -21.20% drop, signaling waning appetite from bigger investors amid a mainly risk-off session. Advancers were vastly outnumbered by decliners (18 vs. 45), with volume churn rising modestly to 644.93M shares, up from 615.92M the previous day. While the YTD performance remains a robust 47.93%, today's action highlights caution—and a notable lack of momentum—especially among large-cap names, even as pockets of bullish activity persist in select small and mid-cap counters.

Key Market Trends

• Market Breadth: Striking weakness with a ratio of 0.40x (18 advancers vs. 45 decliners). Breadth divergence signals possible further short-term weakness unless a reversal appears this week.
• Turnover: Down -21.20% at ₦18.05B—a marked drop suggesting lower institutional participation and a step-back in conviction trades, despite overall trading volume ticking up.
• Volume Action: Volumes were up in 76 stocks and down in 65, indicative of selective bullishness mostly outside large-caps.
• Unusual Volume:
  • ASO SAVINGS (ASOSAVINGS): +2,768% vs. 90DAvg—potential rotational inflow or speculative interest.
  • STANBIC: +772%; PZ Cussons (PZ): +541%—notable for both a price retreat and heavy volume selloff.
  • FCMB, UACN: Both with 200%+ spikes—upward momentum for FCMB, stable for UACN.

Top Gainers & Losers

Noteworthy Gainer/Loser Insights:

• EUNISELL not only tops daily gainers and 5D YTD gainers but its RSI (74.6) signals a heavily overbought state—short-term traders watch for signs of profit-taking. MACD remains bullish.
• HONYFLOUR stands out as a gainer for the day but is also a major YTD loser (-9.19% MTD), showing a possible rebound candidate.
• UPDC features on both day's and YTD loser list—structural underperformance. Bearish momentum persists per both RSI and 15DMA cross below.
• NASCON experienced a sharp drop, likely a reversal as its RSI drops from elevated but not extreme levels.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION BREW. PLC (YTD: -9.8%): Despite a mid-level RSI (54.4) and bullish MACD crossover, its YTD return is negative—a classic divergence that could suggest a turning point or "value trap.” Traders should wait for volume confirmation.
• HONYFLOUR: Oversold RSI (27.9) but a significant gain today; "dead cat bounce” or early reversal?
• NESTLE: Heavy volume selloff with price far below 15DMA—if RSI rebuilds, could become a mean reversion play.

Bullish & Bearish Momentum Patterns (15DMA Crossover, RSI, MACD)

• Bullish Cross: Government bonds (FGS202890, FGS202789, FGS202791) and CILEASING showing bullish momentum above their 15DMA, despite the general market weakness—risk-off trade or flight to safety?
• Bearish Cross: SOVRENINS, PZ, INTENEGINS, NEM, NESTLE, OANDO, NASCON, SKYAVN—all large and mid-cap stocks showing price below 15DMA and weak RSI/MACD readings—indicating sector-wide pressure within insurance, FMCG, and oil & gas.
• SKYAVN and NASCON: Both on daily losers, bear momentum and unusual volumes—a combination that rarely reverses quickly.
• SOVRENINS: Double-flagged—YTD loser, and just crossed below 15DMA. Avoid for now; possible continued downside.

YTD Top 5 Gainers & Losers

Sector Heatmap (Color-coded)

Dividend-Yield vs Beta Matrix

Note: Some high-yield stocks (PZ, SOVRENINS, NEM) are also on bearish lists, implying dividend traps if trends persist. Wait for stability.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Institutional trades accounted for 20.17%+ of trade value; notable clustering. Watch for large, directional blocks driving price swings.
• ARADEL: 0.6% of institutional trade count, but high value per trade—indicative of formidable buy-side interest.
• MTNN, UBA, ACCESSCORP: Persistent institutional flows (with MTNN also attracting retail day-traders)—potential for volatility spikes.

Trader Suggestions & Insights

• High-momentum and high-RSI names (EUNISELL, ASOSAVINGS, JBERGER) are running hot. Momentum traders should employ tight trailing stops to lock in gains in case profit-taking accelerates. Overbought conditions signal caution, not just optimism.
• Bearish momentum stocks (SOVRENINS, PZ, OANDO, NASCON, SKYAVN): Continue to show both technical and sectoral weakness; best to avoid until reversal patterns or volume climaxes appear.
• Contrarian/Mean Reversion Play: PZ, NESTLE—if volume dries up and selling fades, watch for sharp rebounds; speculative for advanced traders.
• Defensive/Income Play: Shortlist NEM, AFRIPRUD after further technical stabilization.
• Debt Issues and ETFS: Bullish momentum in government bonds and ETFs suggest increased risk aversion or defensive allocation; could drag equity sentiment if trend persists.
• YTD Losers Crossover Candidates: Continuous outflow and deteriorating sentiment in names like UPDC, CAVERTON—wait for a hard reversal.

Market Activity/Trades Summary Insights

• Retail vs Institutional: Retail investors drove 62.77% of trade counts but only 10.58% of trade value. Institutions carried 89.42% by value—concentrating on bigger, more liquid names.
• Top 5 Institutional Symbols:
  1. ZENITHBANK (11.03% institutional trade value share)—liquidity magnet
  2. ARADEL
  3. MTNN
  4. UBA
  5. ACCESSCORP
• Top 5 Retail Symbols:
  1. MTNN (most popular across both investor classes—highly liquid, ideal for intraday)
  2. GTCO
  3. ZENITHBANK
  4. ACCESSCORP
  5. FCMB (notably also on unusual volume list with positive momentum)
• Pattern Note: The overlap of ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, and MTNN as top-traded names for both institutional and retail players signals these stocks remain market barometers, but directional conviction is weak today.
• Correlations: Institutional concentration in banking (ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP) suggests sector remains risk-on focal point, though price action is sideways/soft. Retail is chasing high-volatility and recent large-move names (FCMB, GTCO).

Hidden & Not-So-Obvious Insights for Savvy Investors

• The dominance of government bonds on the bullish momentum list alongside ETFs, while the majority of equities cross below their 15DMA, points to an institutional rotation into safer assets—potential harbinger of further equity consolidation.
• Overlap of certain stocks (UPDC, SOVRENINS, HONYFLOUR) on daily and YTD losers lists with simultaneous bearish technical crossovers is rare—a strong signal to remain on the sidelines until confirmed base-building.
• Former momentum high-flyers (PZ, NESTLE, NASCON) now in corrective/bearish setups with heavy volume—watch for climax selling and reversal setups within 1-2 weeks.
• Massive spikes in speculative and low-priced counters (ASOSAVINGS: +2,768% vol), often signal short-term tops or distribution phases.
• Defensive, high-yield names (AFRIPRUD, NEM, PZ) are attractive for medium-term portfolios but technicals suggest waiting for a stabilization phase before accumulation.

Outlook & Calls to Action

• Cautious near-term: Market leadership is lacking, with breadth and turnover suggesting further drift or downside. Watch for a flush in major losers as potential "bottom-fishing” zones.
• Momentum traders: Focus on those select names with both elevated RSI and confirmed MACD/volume improvement. Use protective stops.
• Defensive and income portfolio managers: Keep screening for value in stocks with high dividend yields and low beta, but let technicals confirm basing first.
• Active sector watchers: Monitor continued flows into debt/ETF space for cues on further equity outflows.